My Conservative Miners Price Targets For 2024 with BTC

Yeah bitfarms and cifr sbojldnt be given the same P/E ratio as Cleanspark/Mara/ and maybe Riot.

They have nowhere near as much growth in the pipeline. Bitfarms has a goal of 12 EH/s and possibly 17 EH/s.

Cleanspark will be at 32.0 EH/s at least

Thanks for the amazing content and for always being ahead of other channels. Quick Question, please. CLSK has no debt as of now?

Why didn't you do this in Sats? All I want to know about a mining stock is if it will beat Bitcoin, and by how much.

That’s why the HODL means so much the halving will crush the miners but the ones who have a nice size hodl and BTC say is at 90k those companies with HODL price will literally double in price.

Another great video Seb. I'm currently 1/3 splits between Mara, Clsk and KR1. Why do you think Bitf will outperform Mara, and any thoughts on KR1?

If the miners are a leverage play on Bitcoin of let’s say 3x then why would they only increase 5x when Bitcoin 6xs? Shouldn’t they do at least an 18x? Obviously dilution aside.

Thanks 👍 for the update ❤ greatly appreciated 😂

Thanks for the tons of research you do and most of all for sharing it.

Good video 👌👍

Here's how to play the cycle, or at least for me. Buy a miner at 2022 pricing (for me this was CORZ at 0.33 this past November and 0.6 earlier last year) then ride that up to pre halving, after NASDAQ listing could easily be 4-10 by March where I would cash out multiples like 10x on the price but also multiples on the shares due to the warrants and distributions. Then I would put that in 2x ETF BTC in March or on a dip and run that into December. Then see where BTC is and if it goes to anywhere close to 150k then close long positions and start opening short positions with the inverse 2x ETF. Once BTC goes to 150k you know the top is there or close. Then I would wait a year from the peak top to bottom at which point after exactly one year I would close all inverse positions and switch long again on some yield bearing BTC ETFs and some other alt ETFs possibly. This plan assuming CORZ entry in November low would bring something like 20-30x cash basis on CORZ exit, then another 5-10x on the ETF long play, and another 5x-10 on the short ETF play (5x at the 100k BTC level, 10x at the 200k BTC level). Do a 20 X 5 X 5 times $$k and you can imagine the numbers. Then do it again on the way up from the 2026 bottom to 2030 top like another 10x or more and you can see some wild numbers. The 2x ETFs will absolutely outperform the miners after halving and once we get an inverse, shorting the BTC top will be where the real money is.

They're being shorted to death. I know shorting the stock is important for liquidity but man….who constantly pushes price down to kill every company? Really not alot of faith in the manipulation of the markets. Had just got back in and I'm right back out….your videos have been helpful, perhaps I'll play this casino another time.

Which miner would be safe until jan 2026? (2yrs) CLSK?

As I'm from india. If i withdraw my gains before 2yrs, I'll be taxed heavily in india as per slab rate (30-40%). But only 20% after 2yrs (LTCG Tax)

"NFA!"

2/3 CLSK + 1/3 BITF. What do you guys think of this allocation? Won’t be taken as financial advice. Can it do 5x from now on?

I really wish we could see net income estimates based on $/kwhr costs, rather than just spit-balling some %-of-gross-revenue. The percent estimate is rough because it is highly reflexive to hashprice, and so it's quite inaccurate to just come up with an average over 12 months. I also don't know if 50% is reasonable… In Q4, no miner will come anywhere close to 50% of revenue being income, despite hashprice reaching heights that are greater than the theoretical conditions you are looking at (I think).

Even just assuming $0.10 / kwhr would be pretty close. Sure, it would ignore depreciation and interest, but by and large it's a pretty darn good estimate of how their costs will scale.

You could easily incorporate this into your sheets. For each miner, add a "costs" row, and for each month: Take their fleet size, multiply by estimated J/TH (or just use, say, 25), and you have the MW of power demand… from which you can get how many KWHs they use; then just multiply by $0.10 to get their overall costs. Subtract that from the revenue, and you have an upper bound on net income. Seems easy because you don't need to add any additional information per miner.

To get to net income, you pretty much just need to add in depreciation costs.. which you could roughly estimate (I know you track their fleets!) It'd be a little more work, yes. But I think having a solid upper bound on net income would be a nice improvement.

Am I missing something? IREN does not HODL, so how can their SP scenarios be different with and without HODL? That is baffling to me.

I think 650 EH/s by April, easily. S21's are going to be flowing in like water the entire year. I would guess 900 EH/s by Jan 2025.

Thank you for your efforts and keeping us up-to-date.